DJ ICE Cocoa Review: Falls On Dollar Strength, Crop Ideas
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Cocoa futures for September delivery fell to an 11 1/2-week low on
speculative fund sales linked to a strong U.S. dollar and ideas that favorable
conditions in West Africa will lead to increased production.
Nearby September cocoa lost $106, or 3.5% Tuesday to settle at $2,906 a ton
on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. The session low of $2,880 was the weakest
price for the contract since May 21.
While West African cocoa production has fallen in recent years due to a lack
of investment in the sector, poor yields and the relative popularity of
alternative crops such as rubber trees, favorable weather conditions are seen
boosting the upcoming main crop in top-producer Ivory Coast.
"Over the last three or four weeks we have seen very favorable weather for
cocoa development," said Sterling Smith, analyst at Country Hedging in St.
Paul, Minn.
"It was a little moist earlier and I think that may have gotten people a bit
nervous, but it dried right back out and things are as they should be," he
added.
Cocoa needs moisture interspersed with days of bright sunshine to allow the
pods to dry properly and thus stave off disease.
Cocoa futures were also pressured by the strengthening dollar. Traders fled
for the safety of the greenback amid reports indicating slowing domestic
consumption in China, a surprising drop in U.S. productivity and trepidation
over what measures, if any, the Federal Reserve might take to help boost the
slumping economy.
The economic worries encouraged traders to shed riskier commodity investments
like cocoa and buy the dollar in a safe-haven play, a broker said.
Arrivals of cocoa beans to Ivory Coast ports from the farms from Oct. 1
through Aug. 8, the first 45 weeks of the 2009-10 season, were projected at 1.1
million metric tons, down 0.8% from the comparable year-ago level.
In the week through Aug. 8, arrivals were estimated at 10,000 tons, up from
5,153 tons one year ago.
Cocoa is in a seasonal lull as the Ivory Coast won't begin harvesting its
much larger main crop until October and before global demand typically
strengthens in the fall due to the approaching holidays.
Ivory Coast Prime Minister Guillaume Soro has announced that presidential
elections will be held on Oct. 31. Elections originally scheduled in 2005 were
repeatedly canceled by an ongoing civil war between the rebel-controlled north
and the government-run south. Allegations of voter fraud have also repeatedly
delayed the process.
While the elections could foster a more stable political climate in the
war-torn nation, most cocoa traders are taking a wait-and-see attitude. Any
political upheaval or violence this fall could potentially hurt cocoa exports
out of Ivory Coast, a situation traders will monitor closely, the broker said.
London cocoa futures also fell on the prospect of larger crops and the losses
in New York. September cocoa traded on NYSE Euronext's Liffe lost GBP62, or
2.8%, to settle at GBP2,123 a ton.
Open interest in ICE cocoa fell 994 to total 122,445 contracts, the exchange
reported.
Volume is pegged at 35,370 contracts, with 1,045 calls and 157 put options
traded.
ICE Change Range
Sep $2,906 dn 106 2,880 - 2,989
Dec $2,930 dn 109 2,907 - 3,014
* ICE settlements in dollars per metric ton with intraday range.
martes, 10 de agosto de 2010
viernes, 6 de agosto de 2010
DJ ICE Cocoa Review: Falls On Increased Crop Prospects
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Cocoa futures for September delivery fell on speculative fund selling linked
to ideas of increased output from the main West African growing region.
Nearby September cocoa lost $107, or 3.4%, on Friday, to settle at $3,006 a
ton on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.
Traders cited favorable growing weather for the upcoming main crop as
providing selling interest in cocoa.
"Production is definitely rebounding. We rallied [earlier in the week], and
that's been met by a wall of selling," said James Cordier, analyst and
president of Liberty Trading Group in Tampa.
While West African cocoa production has fallen in recent years due to a lack
of investment in the sector, poor yields and the relative popularity of
alternative crops such as rubber trees, favorable weather conditions are seen
boosting the upcoming main crops in Ivory Coast and Ghana, a broker said.
Cocoa trading resembles a broken record as futures reach highs around
$3,100-$3,200 and then decline--a pattern the market has followed now for
several months, Cordier said.
ICE cocoa also was pressured by a weaker-than-expected report on U.S.
employment, which caused traders to pare riskier commodity bets.
Nonfarm payrolls fell by 131,000 in July, the Labor Department said, versus
pre-report expectations for a loss of 60,000 jobs. The news pressured the U.S.
dollar and took equities lower.
Cocoa is considered a luxury item, one that consumers may do without during
times of economic strife. The weak data cast doubt on whether recent strong
demand for cocoa and chocolate can be sustained.
London cocoa futures also fell on the prospect of larger West African crops.
September cocoa traded on NYSE Euronext's Liffe lost GBP99, or 4.3%, to settle
at GBP2,193 a ton, after hitting a two-month low of GBP2,179 earlier in the
session.
Open interest in ICE cocoa rose 880 to total 125,130 contracts, the exchange
reported.
Volume is pegged at a strong 34,894 contracts, with 142 calls and 83 put
options traded.
ICE Change Range
Sep $3,006 dn 107 2,976 - 3,132
Dec $3,035 dn 103 3,005 - 3,153
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Cocoa futures for September delivery fell on speculative fund selling linked
to ideas of increased output from the main West African growing region.
Nearby September cocoa lost $107, or 3.4%, on Friday, to settle at $3,006 a
ton on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.
Traders cited favorable growing weather for the upcoming main crop as
providing selling interest in cocoa.
"Production is definitely rebounding. We rallied [earlier in the week], and
that's been met by a wall of selling," said James Cordier, analyst and
president of Liberty Trading Group in Tampa.
While West African cocoa production has fallen in recent years due to a lack
of investment in the sector, poor yields and the relative popularity of
alternative crops such as rubber trees, favorable weather conditions are seen
boosting the upcoming main crops in Ivory Coast and Ghana, a broker said.
Cocoa trading resembles a broken record as futures reach highs around
$3,100-$3,200 and then decline--a pattern the market has followed now for
several months, Cordier said.
ICE cocoa also was pressured by a weaker-than-expected report on U.S.
employment, which caused traders to pare riskier commodity bets.
Nonfarm payrolls fell by 131,000 in July, the Labor Department said, versus
pre-report expectations for a loss of 60,000 jobs. The news pressured the U.S.
dollar and took equities lower.
Cocoa is considered a luxury item, one that consumers may do without during
times of economic strife. The weak data cast doubt on whether recent strong
demand for cocoa and chocolate can be sustained.
London cocoa futures also fell on the prospect of larger West African crops.
September cocoa traded on NYSE Euronext's Liffe lost GBP99, or 4.3%, to settle
at GBP2,193 a ton, after hitting a two-month low of GBP2,179 earlier in the
session.
Open interest in ICE cocoa rose 880 to total 125,130 contracts, the exchange
reported.
Volume is pegged at a strong 34,894 contracts, with 142 calls and 83 put
options traded.
ICE Change Range
Sep $3,006 dn 107 2,976 - 3,132
Dec $3,035 dn 103 3,005 - 3,153
jueves, 5 de agosto de 2010
DJ ICE Cocoa Review: Falls In Light-Volume Spread Trade
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Cocoa prices slipped Thursday in seasonally thin spread
trading.
Nearby cocoa for September delivery cocoa settled $5, or 0.2%, lower at
$3,113 a metric ton on ICE Futures U.S.
Cocoa prices are trading in a seasonal lull. Trade is light during the summer
months as production in West Africa is light, as is demand. Cocoa trading
volume picks up nearer to Oct. 1, the official start date of the cocoa harvest
in Ivory Coast, the world's top producer. Confectioners and food manufacturers
also begin to stock up on beans at that time to prepare for the winter
holidays.
Cocoa prices had early support from the weaker dollar but fell below
unchanged by the settlement as the greenback firmed. The market continues to
hold the $2,900-$3,250 range.
Much of Thursday's trading volume consisted of rolling from the September
contract to December.
"It's not finding a lot of outright momentum or any news to speak of at the
moment," said a New Jersey-based cocoa broker and analyst.
Volume was estimated 19,347 contracts, according to exchange data. In
options, approximately eight calls and 1014 puts traded.
ICE cocoa open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of
the session--increased by 621 positions Wednesday to total 124,250, the
exchange reported.
Close Change Range (To the point of settlement)
Sep $3,113 -$5 $3,092-$3,156
Dec $3,138 -$1 $3,116-$3,180
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Cocoa prices slipped Thursday in seasonally thin spread
trading.
Nearby cocoa for September delivery cocoa settled $5, or 0.2%, lower at
$3,113 a metric ton on ICE Futures U.S.
Cocoa prices are trading in a seasonal lull. Trade is light during the summer
months as production in West Africa is light, as is demand. Cocoa trading
volume picks up nearer to Oct. 1, the official start date of the cocoa harvest
in Ivory Coast, the world's top producer. Confectioners and food manufacturers
also begin to stock up on beans at that time to prepare for the winter
holidays.
Cocoa prices had early support from the weaker dollar but fell below
unchanged by the settlement as the greenback firmed. The market continues to
hold the $2,900-$3,250 range.
Much of Thursday's trading volume consisted of rolling from the September
contract to December.
"It's not finding a lot of outright momentum or any news to speak of at the
moment," said a New Jersey-based cocoa broker and analyst.
Volume was estimated 19,347 contracts, according to exchange data. In
options, approximately eight calls and 1014 puts traded.
ICE cocoa open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of
the session--increased by 621 positions Wednesday to total 124,250, the
exchange reported.
Close Change Range (To the point of settlement)
Sep $3,113 -$5 $3,092-$3,156
Dec $3,138 -$1 $3,116-$3,180
miércoles, 4 de agosto de 2010
DJ ICE Cocoa Review: ICE Cocoa Swings Up On Spillover Buying
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Cocoa prices rose Wednesday as speculative interest in
commodities spilled over into the market.
Nearby cocoa for September delivery cocoa settled $60, or 2%, higher at
$3,118 a metric ton on ICE Futures U.S. The settlement was the highest in two
weeks for a nearby contract.
Cocoa is taking cues from outside markets and technical chart indicators
during an intrinsically slow time of the year. World cocoa bean production is
light from May to September, and demand is also seasonally low. However, both
supply and demand pick up in September and October as the West Africa main bean
harvest begins. At the same time, confectioners begin to buy in preparation for
winter holiday chocolate demand.
Speculative traders, like banks and hedge funds, bought agricultural
commodities Wednesday, which lifted cocoa prices. Coffee and sugar were also
stronger as cocoa prices settled.
"Fund buying in anything that you can eat seems to be the word of the day,"
said Sterling Smith, market analyst at Country Hedging in St. Paul, Minn.
Technical buying kicked in at $3,112 and pushed September futures up to a
two-week intraday high at $3,169 midday, Smith said.
Arrivals of cocoa beans from No. 1 producer Ivory Coast's farms at the ports
in Oct. 1-Aug. 1, are seen down 1.7% from the same period last season,
according to industry estimates obtained Wednesday. Aging orchards, a lack of
investment, delayed sector reforms and the relative popularity of rubber trees
are undermining cocoa output in the world's biggest producer.
Volume was an estimated 32,816 contracts to the point of settlement,
according to exchange data. In options, approximately 98 calls and 398 puts
traded on the floor in the same timeframe.
ICE cocoa open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of
the session--increased by 569 positions Tuesday to total 123,629, the exchange
reported.
Close Change Range (To the point of settlement)
Sep $3,118 +$60 $3,066-$3,169
Dec $3,139 +448 $3,092-$3,189
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Cocoa prices rose Wednesday as speculative interest in
commodities spilled over into the market.
Nearby cocoa for September delivery cocoa settled $60, or 2%, higher at
$3,118 a metric ton on ICE Futures U.S. The settlement was the highest in two
weeks for a nearby contract.
Cocoa is taking cues from outside markets and technical chart indicators
during an intrinsically slow time of the year. World cocoa bean production is
light from May to September, and demand is also seasonally low. However, both
supply and demand pick up in September and October as the West Africa main bean
harvest begins. At the same time, confectioners begin to buy in preparation for
winter holiday chocolate demand.
Speculative traders, like banks and hedge funds, bought agricultural
commodities Wednesday, which lifted cocoa prices. Coffee and sugar were also
stronger as cocoa prices settled.
"Fund buying in anything that you can eat seems to be the word of the day,"
said Sterling Smith, market analyst at Country Hedging in St. Paul, Minn.
Technical buying kicked in at $3,112 and pushed September futures up to a
two-week intraday high at $3,169 midday, Smith said.
Arrivals of cocoa beans from No. 1 producer Ivory Coast's farms at the ports
in Oct. 1-Aug. 1, are seen down 1.7% from the same period last season,
according to industry estimates obtained Wednesday. Aging orchards, a lack of
investment, delayed sector reforms and the relative popularity of rubber trees
are undermining cocoa output in the world's biggest producer.
Volume was an estimated 32,816 contracts to the point of settlement,
according to exchange data. In options, approximately 98 calls and 398 puts
traded on the floor in the same timeframe.
ICE cocoa open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of
the session--increased by 569 positions Tuesday to total 123,629, the exchange
reported.
Close Change Range (To the point of settlement)
Sep $3,118 +$60 $3,066-$3,169
Dec $3,139 +448 $3,092-$3,189
martes, 3 de agosto de 2010
DJ ICE Cocoa Review: Slips As Traders Eye Production Potential
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Cocoa prices slipped in seasonally light trade Tuesday
as outlooks for a healthy fall harvest develop.
Nearby cocoa for September delivery cocoa settled $24, or 0.8%, lower at
$3,058 a metric ton on ICE Futures U.S.
Cocoa prices have been stuck in a tight range of $2,900 to $3,200 a ton since
May. During the summer months, cocoa production in the world's key producers is
noticeably lighter. At the same time, demand from end-users tapers off. But
trade picks up in the fall when West Africa begins to harvest beans and
confectioners and manufacturers buy to prepare for the winter holidays.
"We don't expect big problems with the crop in West Africa," said a New
Jersey-based cocoa broker and analyst. "That's going to keep us from any
sustained rally."
Periodic showers favor cocoa areas of Sulawesi, Indonesia, according to
private forecaster Meteorlogix. Malaysia also has seen some increase in
rainfall recently, helping to improve conditions for these trees as well,
Meteorlogix said.
Volume was estimated at 19,199 contracts to the point of settlement,
according to exchange data. In options, approximately one call and 475 puts
traded on the floor.
ICE cocoa open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of
the session--increased by 155 positions Monday to total 123,060, the exchange
reported.
Close Change Range (To the point of settlement)
Sep $3,058 -$24 $3,046-$3,112
Dec $3,091 -$20 $3,077-$3,138
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Cocoa prices slipped in seasonally light trade Tuesday
as outlooks for a healthy fall harvest develop.
Nearby cocoa for September delivery cocoa settled $24, or 0.8%, lower at
$3,058 a metric ton on ICE Futures U.S.
Cocoa prices have been stuck in a tight range of $2,900 to $3,200 a ton since
May. During the summer months, cocoa production in the world's key producers is
noticeably lighter. At the same time, demand from end-users tapers off. But
trade picks up in the fall when West Africa begins to harvest beans and
confectioners and manufacturers buy to prepare for the winter holidays.
"We don't expect big problems with the crop in West Africa," said a New
Jersey-based cocoa broker and analyst. "That's going to keep us from any
sustained rally."
Periodic showers favor cocoa areas of Sulawesi, Indonesia, according to
private forecaster Meteorlogix. Malaysia also has seen some increase in
rainfall recently, helping to improve conditions for these trees as well,
Meteorlogix said.
Volume was estimated at 19,199 contracts to the point of settlement,
according to exchange data. In options, approximately one call and 475 puts
traded on the floor.
ICE cocoa open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of
the session--increased by 155 positions Monday to total 123,060, the exchange
reported.
Close Change Range (To the point of settlement)
Sep $3,058 -$24 $3,046-$3,112
Dec $3,091 -$20 $3,077-$3,138
lunes, 2 de agosto de 2010
DJ ICE Cocoa Review: Slips In Range-Bound Summer Trading
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Cocoa prices tumbled Monday as the market was unable to
maintain momentum near the top of its range.
Nearby cocoa for September delivery cocoa settled $9, or 0.3%, lower at
$3,082 a metric ton on ICE Futures U.S.
Cocoa futures have been trading in a narrow band in recent months as both
supply and demand are in their annual summer lull. Trade tends to pick up in
September and October when beans from West Africa's plantations make their way
through marketing channels. At the same time, confectioners begin to stock up
on cocoa to manufacture chocolate for the holiday season.
September cocoa shied away from the $3,200 top of its range Monday. The
contract is likely to now drift back toward the $2,900 bottom of the range,
said Spencer Patton, founder and chief investment officer at Steel Vine
Investments in Chicago.
Volume was estimated 14,673 contracts to the point of settlement, according
to exchange data. In options, approximately 144 calls and 602 puts traded in
the same time frame.
ICE cocoa open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of
the session--decreased by 1,515 positions Friday to total 122,905, the exchange
reported.
Close Change Range (To the point of settlement) Liffe
Close Change
Sep $3,082 -$9 $3,040-$3,108 Sep
GBP2,257 -GBP16
Dec $3,111 -$9 $3,069-$3,133 Dec
GBP2,171 -GBP14
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Cocoa prices tumbled Monday as the market was unable to
maintain momentum near the top of its range.
Nearby cocoa for September delivery cocoa settled $9, or 0.3%, lower at
$3,082 a metric ton on ICE Futures U.S.
Cocoa futures have been trading in a narrow band in recent months as both
supply and demand are in their annual summer lull. Trade tends to pick up in
September and October when beans from West Africa's plantations make their way
through marketing channels. At the same time, confectioners begin to stock up
on cocoa to manufacture chocolate for the holiday season.
September cocoa shied away from the $3,200 top of its range Monday. The
contract is likely to now drift back toward the $2,900 bottom of the range,
said Spencer Patton, founder and chief investment officer at Steel Vine
Investments in Chicago.
Volume was estimated 14,673 contracts to the point of settlement, according
to exchange data. In options, approximately 144 calls and 602 puts traded in
the same time frame.
ICE cocoa open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of
the session--decreased by 1,515 positions Friday to total 122,905, the exchange
reported.
Close Change Range (To the point of settlement) Liffe
Close Change
Sep $3,082 -$9 $3,040-$3,108 Sep
GBP2,257 -GBP16
Dec $3,111 -$9 $3,069-$3,133 Dec
GBP2,171 -GBP14
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