DJ ICE Cocoa Review: Lower As Speculators Take Profits
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Cocoa prices skidded lower Wednesday as traders sold to
book profits at the end of June and the second quarter of the year.
Nearby cocoa for July delivery settled $54, or 3%, lower at $2,894 a metric
ton on ICE Futures U.S. The most actively traded September contract settled
$35, or 1.2%, lower at $2,944.
The cocoa market is trading within a seasonal lull from roughly April through
September. Beans from West Africa come in at a slower pace, and chocolate
consumption tends to slow during the U.S. and European summer season.
Cocoa continued its drop after losing 5% in the previous session. Concerns
about world economic progress sent speculative traders out of commodities and
equities investments.
Speculative funds, like banks and hedge funds, sold cocoa positions Wednesday
to book profits at the end of the second quarter of the year. The end of the
month are traditional sessions for such sales as they coincide with money
managers' reports to their clients on the progress of investments.
September cocoa prices could pull back to the $2,800 level in continuation of
the recent move lower, cocoa broker and analyst said.
Arrivals of cocoa beans from farms in the top cocoa producer Ivory Coast to
ports in the first 39 weeks of the season through June 27, are seen down 0.7%
on the 1.06 million tons from last year, according to industry estimates
obtained Wednesday. Arrivals in week 39 were about 14,000 tons, up on the
11,756 tons calculated for the season-earlier period. Arrivals are tailing off
as the smaller midcrop declines.
ICE cocoa open interest -- the number of active positions left at the end of
the session -- increased by 767 positions Tuesday to total 118,192, the
exchange reported.
Volume was estimated 16,266 contracts, according to exchange data. In
options, approximately 10 calls and 1,301 puts traded.
Close Change Range (To the point of settlement)
Jly $2,894 -$54 $2,894-$2,911
Sep $2,944 -$35 $2,341-$3,010
miércoles, 30 de junio de 2010
martes, 29 de junio de 2010
Noticias cacao 29 junio
DJ ICE Cocoa Review: Sep Plunges 5.1% As Funds Worry, Sell
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Cocoa for September delivery fell 5.1% Tuesday on fund selling linked to
renewed global economic worries as traders sold riskier investments like
commodities.
Most-active September cocoa traded on ICE Futures U.S. fell $159, or 5.1%, to
settle at $2,979 a ton. Thinly traded July fell $155, or 5%, to end at $2,948 a
ton.
Weak economic reports out of China and the U.S. stoked fears that the global
economy could sputter and possibly fall into a double-dip recession,
particularly as the pickup in some sectors of the economy has been done with
U.S. unemployment still hovering at 9.7%. Traders bought the dollar as a cover
from the economic turmoil, the effect of which pushed nearly all commodity
markets down.
A strengthening greenback is bearish for cocoa because it makes the commodity
more expensive in other currencies.
A sputtering global economy would be expected to decrease demand for a luxury
commodity like cocoa, a broker said.
"Funds are taking risk off the table...it's a risk-off, all commodities are
sold" type of trading mentality, said Spencer Patton, analyst and chief investment officer at Steel Vince Investments in Chicago.
"It's a jobless recovery. We're not seeing the jobs or the housing data," he
said.
Consumer confidence in the U.S. plummeted to 52.9 in June, from a downwardly
revised 62.7 in May, the Conference Board said Tuesday.
The dour news followed renewed concerns in China, after the Conference Board
downwardly corrected the country's leading economic indicators to show just
0.3% growth in April, from 1.7% reported earlier.
Cocoa did pare its steepest losses of the session, however, as the lower
prices uncovered buying interest and as the dollar edged off its highs, a
broker said.
Nigeria's 2010-11 main cocoa crop has been hit back dry conditions, leading
to fewer and smaller pods on the trees. The rainy season, which began in May
but has been disappointing so far, ends in October. The main crop harvest runs
begins in September and typically runs through February.
Cocoa declared for export out of top grower Ivory Coast from Oct. 1 through
June 23 totaled 863,801 metric tons, down 12.9% on the comparable year-ago
level. Output is down due to aging orchards and a lack of investment in the
sector.
Open interest in cocoa rose 561 to total 117,425 lots, ICE reported. Just 185
positions remained open in July ahead of its July 15 expiration.
Futures volume was estimated at a heavy 22,852 lots traded, with 314 calls
and nine put options traded.
ICE Change Range
July $2,948 dn 155 2,921 - 3,075
Sep $2,979 dn 159 2,924 - 3,135
* ICE settlements in dollars per metric ton with intraday range.
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Cocoa for September delivery fell 5.1% Tuesday on fund selling linked to
renewed global economic worries as traders sold riskier investments like
commodities.
Most-active September cocoa traded on ICE Futures U.S. fell $159, or 5.1%, to
settle at $2,979 a ton. Thinly traded July fell $155, or 5%, to end at $2,948 a
ton.
Weak economic reports out of China and the U.S. stoked fears that the global
economy could sputter and possibly fall into a double-dip recession,
particularly as the pickup in some sectors of the economy has been done with
U.S. unemployment still hovering at 9.7%. Traders bought the dollar as a cover
from the economic turmoil, the effect of which pushed nearly all commodity
markets down.
A strengthening greenback is bearish for cocoa because it makes the commodity
more expensive in other currencies.
A sputtering global economy would be expected to decrease demand for a luxury
commodity like cocoa, a broker said.
"Funds are taking risk off the table...it's a risk-off, all commodities are
sold" type of trading mentality, said Spencer Patton, analyst and chief investment officer at Steel Vince Investments in Chicago.
"It's a jobless recovery. We're not seeing the jobs or the housing data," he
said.
Consumer confidence in the U.S. plummeted to 52.9 in June, from a downwardly
revised 62.7 in May, the Conference Board said Tuesday.
The dour news followed renewed concerns in China, after the Conference Board
downwardly corrected the country's leading economic indicators to show just
0.3% growth in April, from 1.7% reported earlier.
Cocoa did pare its steepest losses of the session, however, as the lower
prices uncovered buying interest and as the dollar edged off its highs, a
broker said.
Nigeria's 2010-11 main cocoa crop has been hit back dry conditions, leading
to fewer and smaller pods on the trees. The rainy season, which began in May
but has been disappointing so far, ends in October. The main crop harvest runs
begins in September and typically runs through February.
Cocoa declared for export out of top grower Ivory Coast from Oct. 1 through
June 23 totaled 863,801 metric tons, down 12.9% on the comparable year-ago
level. Output is down due to aging orchards and a lack of investment in the
sector.
Open interest in cocoa rose 561 to total 117,425 lots, ICE reported. Just 185
positions remained open in July ahead of its July 15 expiration.
Futures volume was estimated at a heavy 22,852 lots traded, with 314 calls
and nine put options traded.
ICE Change Range
July $2,948 dn 155 2,921 - 3,075
Sep $2,979 dn 159 2,924 - 3,135
* ICE settlements in dollars per metric ton with intraday range.
lunes, 28 de junio de 2010
Noticias cacao 28 junio
DJ ICE Cocoa Review: Strongest Close In 7 Weeks; Speculators Buy
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
ICE cocoa futures for September delivery closed at its strongest level in
more than seven weeks, buoyed by speculative buying on bullish chart signals
and ideas of increased demand.
Thinly traded July cocoa added $11, or 0.36%, to settle at $3,103 per ton on
ICE Futures U.S. Most-active September rose $25, or 0.80%, to end at $3,138 a
ton. September's session high of $3,144 was the strongest price for the
contract since May 7.
Cocoa's rise came on the heels of 5.5% gains last week, when an improved
chart picture and expectations for increased demand lifted the market. Those
supportive factors were also influential in Monday's trade, particularly after
September shot above Friday's $3,130 high, encouraging chart-following traders
to buy.
Fundamental support is derived from expectations for increased global cocoa
demand. On Friday, Netherlands-based Fortis Bank projected 2010-11 grindings--a
measure of consumption--to rise by 2.6% from year-ago levels to 3.7 million
tons. Global output for the coming crop year is seen rising 7.1% to 3.8 million
tons, from 3.5 million this year.
ICE cocoa's climb to new highs has been a self-perpetuating bullish influence
on futures, and the ability of September to close above Friday's peak of $3,130
is expected to boost prices further, said Boyd Cruel, senior softs market
analyst at Vision Financial Markets in Chicago.
Bullish traders, or traders expecting prices to rise, will now target the
$3,180-$3,185 level on September cocoa, he said.
Ivory Coast exported 760,455 tons of cocoa beans in the October 2009-May 2010
period, the first eight months of the 2009-10 season, down 4.7% from the
797,760 tons shipped in the comparable season one year ago.
Top grower Ivory Coast's output has been reduced by aging orchards and a lack
of investment in the cocoa sector. Increased interest in rubber tree production
has also crimped cocoa production.
Trading volumes were thin Monday as some traders begin to take off for the
long July 4 holiday weekend.
Cocoa traded on NYSE Euronext's Liffe for September delivery lost GBP3, or
0.12%, to settle at GBP2,447 a ton.
ICE open interest--the number of contracts outstanding between traders at the
prior day's close--rose 1,899 contracts to total 116,864, exchange data showed.
Just 208 contracts remained open in nearby July futures ahead of its July 15
expiration. Most active September held 59,130 open positions.
Futures volume is estimated 5,425 lots, with seven calls and six put options
traded, ICE data showed.
ICE Change Range
July $3,103 up $11 $3,103 - $3,110
Sep $3,138 up $25 $3,106 - $3,144
* ICE settlements in dollars per metric ton.
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
ICE cocoa futures for September delivery closed at its strongest level in
more than seven weeks, buoyed by speculative buying on bullish chart signals
and ideas of increased demand.
Thinly traded July cocoa added $11, or 0.36%, to settle at $3,103 per ton on
ICE Futures U.S. Most-active September rose $25, or 0.80%, to end at $3,138 a
ton. September's session high of $3,144 was the strongest price for the
contract since May 7.
Cocoa's rise came on the heels of 5.5% gains last week, when an improved
chart picture and expectations for increased demand lifted the market. Those
supportive factors were also influential in Monday's trade, particularly after
September shot above Friday's $3,130 high, encouraging chart-following traders
to buy.
Fundamental support is derived from expectations for increased global cocoa
demand. On Friday, Netherlands-based Fortis Bank projected 2010-11 grindings--a
measure of consumption--to rise by 2.6% from year-ago levels to 3.7 million
tons. Global output for the coming crop year is seen rising 7.1% to 3.8 million
tons, from 3.5 million this year.
ICE cocoa's climb to new highs has been a self-perpetuating bullish influence
on futures, and the ability of September to close above Friday's peak of $3,130
is expected to boost prices further, said Boyd Cruel, senior softs market
analyst at Vision Financial Markets in Chicago.
Bullish traders, or traders expecting prices to rise, will now target the
$3,180-$3,185 level on September cocoa, he said.
Ivory Coast exported 760,455 tons of cocoa beans in the October 2009-May 2010
period, the first eight months of the 2009-10 season, down 4.7% from the
797,760 tons shipped in the comparable season one year ago.
Top grower Ivory Coast's output has been reduced by aging orchards and a lack
of investment in the cocoa sector. Increased interest in rubber tree production
has also crimped cocoa production.
Trading volumes were thin Monday as some traders begin to take off for the
long July 4 holiday weekend.
Cocoa traded on NYSE Euronext's Liffe for September delivery lost GBP3, or
0.12%, to settle at GBP2,447 a ton.
ICE open interest--the number of contracts outstanding between traders at the
prior day's close--rose 1,899 contracts to total 116,864, exchange data showed.
Just 208 contracts remained open in nearby July futures ahead of its July 15
expiration. Most active September held 59,130 open positions.
Futures volume is estimated 5,425 lots, with seven calls and six put options
traded, ICE data showed.
ICE Change Range
July $3,103 up $11 $3,103 - $3,110
Sep $3,138 up $25 $3,106 - $3,144
* ICE settlements in dollars per metric ton.
viernes, 25 de junio de 2010
Noticias cacao 25 junio
DJ ICE Cocoa Review: Ends Mixed In Consolidation
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Cocoa prices ended little changed Friday as the market
consolidated recent gains.
Nearby cocoa for July delivery cocoa settled $8, or 0.3%, higher at $3,092 a
metric ton. The most actively traded September contract settled $1, or 0.03%,
lower at $3,113.
Cocoa prices rose 5.5% this week on buying from speculative funds like banks
and hedge funds. The market is in a slow seasonal period when news from both
the supply and demand fronts is lacking. Consumers eat less chocolate during
the summer in the Northern Hemisphere. At the same time, incoming supplies are
cyclically lighter from West Africa--the top production region.
During the April-through-September period, cocoa traders closely track
outside factors like the technical charts used to plot market direction.
Bullish technical outlooks gave cocoa a boost in the last week.
"Funds are jumping in on technical buying," said James Cordier, analyst and
founder of OptionSellers.com.
Cocoa hit a seven-week high in the previous session. The market paused Friday
to digest recent gains.
Most of the gains are from fund buyers, though some commercial traders, or
end users, have been buying at current levels, Cordier said.
In the long run, consumption of cocoa is forecast to rise, which is keeping
cocoa prices generally supported.
Netherlands-based Fortis Bank said Friday it projects world cocoa
grindings--a measure of consumption--for the coming 2010-11 season to rise by
or 2.6%, from the year before to 3.7 million tons. In the coming
October-through-September season, worldwide production is expected to rise 7.1%
to 3.8 million tons from an estimated 3.5 million tons this year, the bank
said.
In late May, the International Cocoa Organization pegged global supplies
69,000 tons short of consumption in the current season. Rising demand is
outpacing modest supply growth to 3.596 million tons in the same time frame,
the ICCO said. Global cocoa grindings--a measure of consumption--are seen 4%
higher on the year at 3.629 million tons, according to the organization.
Long spells of rain in top cocoa producer Ivory Coast are benefiting trees in
the primary production belt there.
Extended rains can also lead to crop diseases that cut down production.
Diseases like black pod thrive in the damp conditions of the main rainy season,
especially where cocoa trees haven't been treated. Distribution of free
government pesticides is already well behind schedule.
Cordier said disease threat is a premature worry at the moment.
ICE cocoa open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of
the session--decreased by 220 positions Thursday to total 114,965, the exchange
reported.
Volume through the settlement was estimated at 9,728 contracts, according to
exchange data. In options, approximately 15 calls and 21 puts traded on the
floor in the same timeframe.
Close Change Range (To the point of settlement)
Jly $3,092 +$8 $3,087-$3,106
Sep $3,113 -$1 $3,064-$3,130
-By Holly Henschen, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-461-2138;
holly.henschen@dowjones.com
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Cocoa prices ended little changed Friday as the market
consolidated recent gains.
Nearby cocoa for July delivery cocoa settled $8, or 0.3%, higher at $3,092 a
metric ton. The most actively traded September contract settled $1, or 0.03%,
lower at $3,113.
Cocoa prices rose 5.5% this week on buying from speculative funds like banks
and hedge funds. The market is in a slow seasonal period when news from both
the supply and demand fronts is lacking. Consumers eat less chocolate during
the summer in the Northern Hemisphere. At the same time, incoming supplies are
cyclically lighter from West Africa--the top production region.
During the April-through-September period, cocoa traders closely track
outside factors like the technical charts used to plot market direction.
Bullish technical outlooks gave cocoa a boost in the last week.
"Funds are jumping in on technical buying," said James Cordier, analyst and
founder of OptionSellers.com.
Cocoa hit a seven-week high in the previous session. The market paused Friday
to digest recent gains.
Most of the gains are from fund buyers, though some commercial traders, or
end users, have been buying at current levels, Cordier said.
In the long run, consumption of cocoa is forecast to rise, which is keeping
cocoa prices generally supported.
Netherlands-based Fortis Bank said Friday it projects world cocoa
grindings--a measure of consumption--for the coming 2010-11 season to rise by
or 2.6%, from the year before to 3.7 million tons. In the coming
October-through-September season, worldwide production is expected to rise 7.1%
to 3.8 million tons from an estimated 3.5 million tons this year, the bank
said.
In late May, the International Cocoa Organization pegged global supplies
69,000 tons short of consumption in the current season. Rising demand is
outpacing modest supply growth to 3.596 million tons in the same time frame,
the ICCO said. Global cocoa grindings--a measure of consumption--are seen 4%
higher on the year at 3.629 million tons, according to the organization.
Long spells of rain in top cocoa producer Ivory Coast are benefiting trees in
the primary production belt there.
Extended rains can also lead to crop diseases that cut down production.
Diseases like black pod thrive in the damp conditions of the main rainy season,
especially where cocoa trees haven't been treated. Distribution of free
government pesticides is already well behind schedule.
Cordier said disease threat is a premature worry at the moment.
ICE cocoa open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of
the session--decreased by 220 positions Thursday to total 114,965, the exchange
reported.
Volume through the settlement was estimated at 9,728 contracts, according to
exchange data. In options, approximately 15 calls and 21 puts traded on the
floor in the same timeframe.
Close Change Range (To the point of settlement)
Jly $3,092 +$8 $3,087-$3,106
Sep $3,113 -$1 $3,064-$3,130
-By Holly Henschen, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-461-2138;
holly.henschen@dowjones.com
jueves, 24 de junio de 2010
Noticias cacao 24 junio
DJ ICE Cocoa Review: Strongest Close In 7 Weeks; Speculators Buy
By Tom Sellen
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
ICE cocoa futures for September delivery closed at their strongest level in
seven weeks, buoyed by speculative buying on bullish chart signals and the U.S.
dollar trading down slightly against the sterling.
Thinly traded July cocoa added $44, or 1.5%, to settle at $3,084 a ton on ICE
Futures U.S. Most-active September rose $51, or 1.7%, to $3,114 a ton.
Chart signals were a bullish influence, as prices pushed up through
resistance at this week's high of $3,086 and also the June 3 peak of $3,092,
encouraging chart-following traders to buy, said Spencer Patton, analyst and
chief investment officer at Steel Vine Investments in Chicago.
Cocoa activated pre-programmed buy orders on the way up, aiding the rally.
The strong close "paves the way for cocoa to head up to $3,250," he said,
which would take prices to their highest level since May 5.
Patton attributed most of the gains to the strengthening chart picture,
though traders also cite fundamental influences as providing underlying support
for cocoa.
Traders fretted about too-wet conditions in top producer Ivory Coast, which
could lead to problems with moldy beans and degrade crop quality. The heavy
rains are also making it difficult for growers to transport midcrop beans to
market, putting added pressure on already tight global supplies.
Ivory Coast produces about 40% of the world's cocoa beans.
The West African crop has so far avoided black-pod disease, owing to adequate
amounts of sunshine between rains keeping the disease at bay. Black pod thrives
in humid conditions and can destroy a significant amount of the crop if left
untreated.
The arrival of cocoa beans to Ivory Coast ports from the farms were estimated
at 19,000 metric tons in the week through June 20, up from 7,154 tons in the
comparable year-ago period, industry estimates showed.
For the 2009-10 crop year through June 20, arrivals were pegged at 1.044
million tons, down 0.3% from 1.047 million tons at the same time last year.
Ivory Coast output is the lowest in five years due to a lack of investment in
the cocoa sector and aging orchards.
Traders have also cited the persistent decline in ICE warehouse stocks, which
have fallen to 4.18 million bags, from 4.7 million at the beginning of May, as
a continuing supportive fundamental influence.
London cocoa futures also gained on support from the rallying New York
market.
Cocoa traded on NYSE Euronext's Liffe for September delivery rose GBP36, or
1.5%, to settle at GBP2,436.
ICE open interest--the number of contracts outstanding between traders at the
prior day's close--rose 267 contracts to total 115,185, exchange data showed.
Just 248 contracts remained open in nearby July futures ahead of its July 15
expiration.
Futures volume is estimated at 11,906 lots, with 116 calls and 38 put options
traded, ICE data showed.
ICE Change Range
July $3,084 up $44 $3,054 - $3,084
Sep $3,114 up $51 $3,051 - $3,120
* ICE settlements in dollars per metric ton.
By Tom Sellen
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
ICE cocoa futures for September delivery closed at their strongest level in
seven weeks, buoyed by speculative buying on bullish chart signals and the U.S.
dollar trading down slightly against the sterling.
Thinly traded July cocoa added $44, or 1.5%, to settle at $3,084 a ton on ICE
Futures U.S. Most-active September rose $51, or 1.7%, to $3,114 a ton.
Chart signals were a bullish influence, as prices pushed up through
resistance at this week's high of $3,086 and also the June 3 peak of $3,092,
encouraging chart-following traders to buy, said Spencer Patton, analyst and
chief investment officer at Steel Vine Investments in Chicago.
Cocoa activated pre-programmed buy orders on the way up, aiding the rally.
The strong close "paves the way for cocoa to head up to $3,250," he said,
which would take prices to their highest level since May 5.
Patton attributed most of the gains to the strengthening chart picture,
though traders also cite fundamental influences as providing underlying support
for cocoa.
Traders fretted about too-wet conditions in top producer Ivory Coast, which
could lead to problems with moldy beans and degrade crop quality. The heavy
rains are also making it difficult for growers to transport midcrop beans to
market, putting added pressure on already tight global supplies.
Ivory Coast produces about 40% of the world's cocoa beans.
The West African crop has so far avoided black-pod disease, owing to adequate
amounts of sunshine between rains keeping the disease at bay. Black pod thrives
in humid conditions and can destroy a significant amount of the crop if left
untreated.
The arrival of cocoa beans to Ivory Coast ports from the farms were estimated
at 19,000 metric tons in the week through June 20, up from 7,154 tons in the
comparable year-ago period, industry estimates showed.
For the 2009-10 crop year through June 20, arrivals were pegged at 1.044
million tons, down 0.3% from 1.047 million tons at the same time last year.
Ivory Coast output is the lowest in five years due to a lack of investment in
the cocoa sector and aging orchards.
Traders have also cited the persistent decline in ICE warehouse stocks, which
have fallen to 4.18 million bags, from 4.7 million at the beginning of May, as
a continuing supportive fundamental influence.
London cocoa futures also gained on support from the rallying New York
market.
Cocoa traded on NYSE Euronext's Liffe for September delivery rose GBP36, or
1.5%, to settle at GBP2,436.
ICE open interest--the number of contracts outstanding between traders at the
prior day's close--rose 267 contracts to total 115,185, exchange data showed.
Just 248 contracts remained open in nearby July futures ahead of its July 15
expiration.
Futures volume is estimated at 11,906 lots, with 116 calls and 38 put options
traded, ICE data showed.
ICE Change Range
July $3,084 up $44 $3,054 - $3,084
Sep $3,114 up $51 $3,051 - $3,120
* ICE settlements in dollars per metric ton.
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